From both the geo-strategic and geo-economic standpoints, the balance of power has shifted in America’s favour
WITH their common revolutionary histories and shared universal values based on the commitment to individual rights, the Americans and the French regard each other as their “oldest ally”.
Hence the square facing directly north of the White House is named after the Marquis de Lafayette, the famous French aristocrat and hero of the American Revolutionary War, and includes his statue as well as those of other revolutionary heroes from Europe who had fought on the American side against the British.
This old Franco-American bond was celebrated last Thursday night (Dec 1) when French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Joe Biden toasted each other during the White House’s first state dinner in more than three years.
“To the history that binds and the values that still unite us,” said the oldest-ever American president, who turned 80. “Long live the United States of America, long live France and the friendship between our two countries,” responded the youngest-ever French president, 45, finishing in English: “Cheers. Thank you.” (Another sign of changing times: President Biden’s wife, Jill, is only two years older (71) than Macron’s wife, Brigitte, 69.)
The dinner featuring a performance by bandleader Jon Batiste, and attended by leading American figures from the worlds of politics, business and entertainment, including singer John Legend, Vogue’s editor-in-chief, Anna Wintour, and actress Jennifer Garner, was the climax of the week’s state visit, during which the two leaders highlighted their common interests in standing up to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, while trying to resolve some of their differences, mostly over the transatlantic trade and investment ties.
While France and the US had fought side by side in two world wars as well as the Cold War in the last century, and most recently, in the fight against international terrorism, their relationship faced many challenges. For example, during the reign of French President Charles de Gaulle who resented US attempts to impose its strategic and economic hegemony on France and Europe, and at one point even decided to pull his country out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato).
President Macron likes to compare himself to the legendary President de Gaulle, the founder of the Fifth Republic, by stressing French efforts to win “strategic independence” for the European Union (EU) and enable the Europeans to compete with the Americans on the global stage.
In fact, Franco-American relations were rocked recently by a major diplomatic crisis, after America, Britain and Australia announced a technology cooperation agreement that wrecked a French submarine contract with the Australians, leading President Macron to recall his ambassador from Washington.
But notwithstanding that crisis and other problems, Paris and Washington ended up repairng their relationship, as they confronted a new geo-strategic reality dominated by the war in Ukraine. There the French and Americans found themselves on the same side, confronting the Russian threat to stability and peace in Europe and united by their commitment to defend the Ukrainian resistance to aggression and their independence.
The war in Ukraine has reinvigorated Nato and the leadership role that the US plays in defending Europe, and expanded the economic ties between the US and the EU. This new reality has forced President Macron to set aside his earlier plans for pursuing an independent EU global strategy that would be less reliant on Washington.
But at the same time, the growing military and economic dependency of France and the Europeans on the Americans, with the US replacing Russia as Europe’s largest natural gas supplier and the growing fears over the possibility of direct military confrontation with Russia, has ignited resentment against Washington among EU members.
President Macron has raised these and other concerns during his meeting with President Biden in Washington, including the European objections to the new subsidies and tax incentives that the US administration is now providing as part of its Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to manufacturers of electric vehicles and other products assembled in North America. The new rules were also criticised by not only the EU but also South Korea, Japan, and Britain as discriminating against their companies and violating World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
During a press conference on Dec 1, President Biden insisted that the IRA wasn’t meant to exclude allies such as Europe but to boost North American supply chains and ensure that the US would not be reliant on Chinese products. Following the talks in Washington, the US and France have agreed to find ways to “synchronise our approaches and our agendas‘‘, as President Macron put it.
The focus would now be on trying to find ways to exempt EU members from the IRA’s domestic content requirements and to increase US coordination on technology reviews of Chinese investment with its European allies.
But there are no indications that in this case, the Biden administration would consider reversing what many regard as a form of industrial policy aka “protectionism”. Nor is the administration showing any sign of accommodating another concern, raised by President Macron during his talks in Washington.
With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine and with the Europeans facing an energy crisis as winter approaches, some of the EU members, including France and Germany, have been expressing more willingness to reach a diplomatic deal with President Putin. Indeed, Macron has proposed that he could play the role of a mediator between Ukraine and Russia.
But President Biden insisted that while he was open to meeting with the Russian President, he would do so only if Moscow commits itself to withdrawing from Ukraine.
And President Macron agreed to follow the position of the US as well as that of Poland and the Baltic states on the issue. “We will never urge Ukrainians to make a compromise which would not be acceptable,” he said in Washington.
In a way, the talks in Washington demonstrated the extent to which the balance of power in the transatlantic alliance has changed dramatically since the start of the Ukraine war.
Not long ago during the presidency of Donald Trump, there was a lot of talk in Brussels about the need to turn the EU into an independent global power in the multipolar world. President Macron was promoting his notion of “strategic independence” and the Germans were resisting US pressure to revoke their Nord Stream gas project with Russia and to reassess their growing trade and investment ties with China.
Recognising that they lack the military power necessary to contain the threat from an aggressive Russia or, for that matter, from a surging China, the Europeans have accommodated themselves to the strategic and economic realities under which they have no choice but to accept US leadership in the Western alliance, recognising that their ability to resist American pressure is now limited.
Hence the Germans and other Europeans rescinded their energy deals with Russia, with the result being that they are now dependent on natural gas supplies from the US, whose economy has become the main beneficiary from this development. From that perspective, both the geo-strategic and geo-economic balance of power has shifted in America’s favour, especially as it tries to persuade the Europeans to support its more aggressive strategy vis-à-vis China.
Or to put it in simple terms, when it comes to its relationship with France and the EU, the US is now the party holding the cards.